If you’re new to the prediction market, they’re sites where you predict real-world events like elections, cryptocurrency prices, and economic data. They usually use the blockchain technology to ensure transparency and make trades automatic. Continue reading our guide as we discuss more about these markets and some top platforms you can choose from.
How Do Prediction Markets Work?
Simply put, a prediction market allows you to buy things we call “shares” showing that something will happen or not. You’ll see prices between $0 and $1, indicating the likelihood of things happening. Here’s a list of what you can predict:
- Elections and politics
- Cryptocurrency prices
- Financial markets
- Sports results
- Economic data
- Technology trends
Prediction markets work similarly to the best online casino from this review, where you place a stake on an outcome and get paid if your prediction turns out to be correct. The difference? You’re not betting on a roulette spin. Instead, you’re backing real-world events like election results. Another similarity between casinos and prediction markets is that some sites, like Stonevegas casino described, use blockchain technology and accept crypto payments.
Popular Crypto Prediction Platforms
You’ll come across many platforms where you can make your predictions. Let’s run through some popular ones:
Polymarket
Polymarket remains the leading platform. It runs on Polygon and sees millions in daily volume. During the 2024 US elections, the platform processed over $3.2 billion in total bets.
Kalshi
This site holds a license from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. You can trade on economic indicators, weather patterns, and policy decisions.
Myriad
You can forecast a wider selection of markets at Myriad Markets than most large platforms, as they cover more niche markets. You can also develop custom bets on virtually anything.
Forkast
If you’re a big fan of crypto, Forkast is where you want to be. You can make predictions on the price of tokens, and the rate of adoption, as well as upgrades to protocols.
Tips of Prediction Markets for Crypto Traders
Want to improve your chances of making winning predictions? Follow our expert tips:
Learn the ropes
Similar to making crypto investments, if you’re new to prediction markets, the best thing is to start small. You can use, say $10 or $20 to begin. Try not to risk a huge amount. Make sure you also learn how the prediction works for any event you’re looking at, and understand how any platform you choose operates.
Spread your bets around
As always, try to spread your funds around multiple prediction markets. Don’t just put them to one “sure” market because there’s no guarantee. But when you predict various events, you have a good chance of cashing one or two.
John Templeton puts it best: “Diversification is a safety factor that is essential because we should be humble enough to admit we can be wrong.”
Don’t bet with emotions
If you’re into things like politics or election prediction, you know how emotions can run wild. Just one single news headline can cause chaos and send the prices going up and down. In such cases, don’t just rush with the high emotions or go for markets that everyone is choosing. Relax and wait for things to calm down.
Wait for good prices
We know it can be tempting to buy your preferred shares the second you see a market. But remember that prices bounce around as news breaks. If you think something’s 60% likely but shares cost 75 cents, hold off until the market calms down.
Know when to cash out
Most platforms let you sell before the event ends. If your 40-cent shares jump to 80 cents and you’re happy with that, take the win. Don’t sit around waiting for the full dollar. If things turn against you badly, cutting losses early saves money for better bets.
As economist Robin Hanson said, “Speculative markets are platforms where people who disagree can bet with each other.” Just make sure you’re making the right predictions, not just relying on luck.
Are Prediction Markets Legal?
It depends on where you live. Residing in the US? Here, some prediction markets fall under financial regulation. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) oversees event contracts in some instances. Some other countries treat prediction markets as gambling or they’re unregulated.
Conclusion
If you’re new to crypto prediction markets, our guide has covered the basic details you need to get started. They enable you to buy shares based on whether specific events will occur. You can predict elections and politics, cryptocurrency prices, and financial markets.
Some of the best crypto prediction markets include Polymarket, Kalshi, Myriad Market, and Forkast. Each of these sites brings different features to the table and allows you to easily predict your preferred events.
